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Climate Issues; Doha; U.S. Ag Economy; SNAP (Food Stamps); Biofuels; and Food Security

Climate Issues

Juliet Eilperin reported in yesterday’s Washington Post that, “By offering concrete emission targets last week, the United States and China have resuscitated global climate talks that were headed toward an impasse. But the details that have yet to be resolved — including the money that industrialized countries would offer poorer ones as part of an agreement — suggest a political deal remains a heavy lift for the 192 countries set to convene in Copenhagen in little more than a week.

“Although the proposals from the world’s two biggest greenhouse-gas emitters have boosted the prospects for a deal, they demonstrate something else as well: No one wants to shoulder the blame for failure at Copenhagen, even if it means the final outcome falls short of what many had envisioned a year or two ago. The U.S. pledge to cut its emissions by 2020 and China’s offer to lower its carbon dioxide output relative to the size of its economy by the same date are more modest than what their negotiating partners had demanded.”

Yesterday’s article noted that, “The fact that countries are defining their climate goals in varied ways — including different baseline years and efficiency targets rather than absolute cuts — makes it hard to assess their commitments. The United States has pledged cuts that are modest in the first decade but ambitious 15 and 20 years from now, while China has set a target that could amount to a meaningful reduction if the country’s growth rate slows somewhat.”

With respect to India, which is also a leading emitter of carbon dioxide, Mark Magnier reported in Saturday’s Los Angeles Times that, “India found itself under growing pressure this week to set an emission reduction target after China and the United States announced their pledges in advance of a global summit on climate change that opens early next month.

“The two Asian powerhouses, both of which have eschewed binding targets over concerns about undercutting national development, are seen in some Washington circles as the biggest impediment to an agreement.”

The article explained that, “Internally, India must weigh several factors in mapping out its next move, analysts and former diplomats said. Domestically, the government must consider how much economic pain and political opposition it can withstand in making any concessions.”

Beyond the U.S., China and India, Philip P. Pan reported today at The Washington Post Online that, “Russia is on track to far exceed its targets for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions under the Kyoto climate-change treaty, but its success could derail efforts to reach a new accord against global warming, according to officials and analysts following the negotiations.

“At issue in the thorny dispute is the huge surplus of carbon credits that Russia — the world’s third-largest producer of energy-related greenhouse gases — is amassing by keeping emissions under generous 1997 Kyoto Protocol limits. The Kremlin has insisted that the credits be carried over into a new agreement, but environmentalists say that would cripple any treaty by making it much cheaper for countries to buy credits than cut emissions.”

The article explained that, “In June, Russia offered to cap emissions at no more than 10 to 15 percent below 1990 levels by 2020, a modest goal widely criticized by environmental groups because it would have allowed an acceleration in emissions growth. But European leaders said this month that President Dmitry Medvedev had signaled behind closed doors a willingness to commit Russia to staying 20 to 25 percent below 1990 levels by 2020.

“To meet that new goal without slowing economic growth, Bashmakov said Russia must follow through on ambitious plans to improve energy efficiency and expand its use of renewable energies. Because that task is so difficult, he said, Russia needs to keep its carbon surplus as a backup.”

Meanwhile, Iain McDonald reported in today’s Wall Street Journal that, “Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will meet President Barack Obama in Washington on Monday to discuss climate-change strategies and the war in Afghanistan — two thorny issues on which the Australian leader is unlikely to be able to offer much help despite the close relationship between the two men.

“Mr. Rudd’s plan to cut carbon emissions is stuck in the country’s Senate as an unruly opposition fights within itself to decide whether to support the proposal.”

The AP reported yesterday that, “Leaders of the Commonwealth countries called Saturday for a legally binding international agreement on climate change and a global fund with billions of dollars to help poor countries meet its mandates.

“The 53-nation meeting was the largest gathering of international leaders before next month’s global climate summit in Copenhagen.

“The leaders said a deal should be adopted no later than next year and the support money should be available simultaneously, providing up to $10 billion a year starting in 2012.”

In other climate related developments, Andrew C. Revkin reported in Saturday’s New York Times that, “Some prominent climate scientists are calling for changes in the way research on global warming is conducted after a British university said thousands of private e-mail messages and documents had been stolen from its climate center.

“The scientists say that the e-mail messages, which have circulated on the Internet and which disclose the inner workings of a small network of climatologists who chart the planet’s temperature, have damaged the public’s trust in the evidence that humans are dangerously warming the planet, just as many countries are poised to start reining in greenhouse gas emissions.”

The Times article added that, “‘This whole concept of, ‘We’re the experts, trust us,’ has clearly gone by the wayside with these e-mails,’ said Judith Curry, a climate scientist at Georgia Institute of Technology.

“She and other scientists are seeking more transparency in the way climate data is handled and in the methods used to analyze it. And they argue that scientists should re-evaluate the selection procedures used by some scientific journals and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the panel that in 2007 concluded that humans were the dominant force driving warming and whose findings underpin international discussions over a new climate treaty.”

However, The Washington Times reported last week that, “Obama administration climate czar Carol Browner on Wednesday rejected claims that e-mails stolen from a British university show that climate scientists trumped up global-warming numbers, saying she considers the science settled.”

Senator James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma), who is seeking an investigation relating to the stolen Email issue and climate change, was featured in Q and A article in a recent edition of The New York Times Magazine.

One excerpt from the Q and A piece included the following exchange: “[Q]- Senator Boxer is chairwoman of the Environment and Public Works Committee, on which you are the ranking Republican. She and her fellow Democrats have lately suggested that global warming could be a threat to national security by destabilizing developing countries. 
[A]- That’s the most ludicrous thing. They looked around and they found, I think, five generals to testify before the committee. Well, that’s 5 generals out of 4,000 retired generals that say that. There are a lot of generals who don’t like to be out of the limelight. They’d like to get back in.”

Doha

Another collaborative international policy process with potential implications for agriculture and farm policy is the Doha Round of WTO trade talks.

An update posted today at the International Centre for
Trade and Sustainable Development webpage stated that, “Trade ministers from around the world have descended on Geneva for the WTO’s first formal Ministerial Conference in four years. They are set to review the WTO’s activities and discuss the institution’s role in aiding recovery from the global economic crisis. But no major decisions — or even serious negotiations — are likely, even on the troubled Doha Round trade talks.

“Government officials have ‘very low expectations’ for the summit, which will run from 30 November to 2 December at the city’s International Conference Centre.

“It is a ‘non-event’ by design. The WTO has been bruised by acrimonious breakdowns in the Doha Round negotiations in each of the past three years. With the organisation’s 153 members still not close to an agreement in the eight-year-old trade talks, it was decided in May that the long-overdue meeting – WTO statutes provide for formal ministerials to be held every two years – would be a ‘housekeeping exercise’, not a negotiating session. Instead of risking another Doha-related collapse, the summit would focus on ‘the WTO, the Multilateral Trading System and the Current Global Economic Environment.’”

Media reports suggest that both developing countries and EU businesses have called for action on the long running Doha negotiations, but WTO Director General Pascal Lamy has indicated that, “Delegates attending the World Trade Organisation’s first ministerial conference for four years will review the WTO’s activities but take no decisions on its long-running Doha round.”

An update posted recently at the International Food & Agricultural Trade Policy Council (IPC) Online stated that, “On December 1, IPC will organize a session at the Geneva Trade and Development Symposium at the margin of the WTO Ministerial. The protracted negotiations in the Doha Round have led to calls for alternative options for moving forward with agricultural trade liberalization. In it’s most recent position paper, [summary, full text] IPC examines several of these options and issues recommendations for the best way to reduce barriers to trade of food and agricultural goods.”

An update posted yesterday at the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office webpage noted that, [U.S.] Ambassador [Ron] Kirk and [Brazilian Trade Minister Celso Amorim] discussed this week’s [WTO] ministerial events, and prospects for a balanced and ambitious conclusion to the Doha Round. Ambassador Kirk has stressed in recent months the need for key emerging markets, including Brazil, to provide further market openings to meet the Round’s objectives.”

U.S. Ag Economy

As international policy variables on climate change and trade continue to unfold, news regarding the U.S. domestic agricultural economy and rural economy continues to develop.

Jason Henderson of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City indicated in the latest edition of the Bank’s Main Street Economist publication (“Prospects of a Rural Recovery”) that, “Over the course of the recent recession, rural economies have held up better than their metro peers, thanks to strong economic gains early in the downturn. Even so since 2007, rural communities have endured the steepest and longest economic contraction since the Great Depression.”

Minnesota Public Radio reported on Friday that, “In rural areas across the country, crisis hotlines have returned, taking calls from a new generation of troubled farmers.

“It’s reminiscent of the 1980s, when farm foreclosures were rampant. Now, anxiety is on the rise as the high commodity prices of a few years ago are gone.

“Minnesota launched a hotline this month to help farmers feeling the financial and psychological impact of the tough times.”

Meanwhile, a recent University of Illinois Agricultural Extension report from this month stated that, “Higher milk prices were not enough to offset higher costs resulting in total economic costs exceeding returns for Illinois dairy producers in 2008, according to figures summarized by University of Illinois agricultural economists in cooperation with the Illinois Farm Business Farm Management Association. The average net price received per 100 pounds of milk was $19.21, which was less than total costs of $19.79. The price received for milk in 2008 was the highest ever. The average price received for milk in 2007 was $18.83. On a per cow basis, total returns from milk were $3,900 compared to the total cost to produce milk of $4,021 per cow. Total returns from milk per cow were the second highest on record. The highest returns per cow, $3,901, were recorded in 2007. Total returns have exceeded total economic costs five out of the last ten years.”

SNAP (Food Stamps)

Jason DeParle and Robert Gebeloff reported in yesterday’s New York Times that, “With food stamp use at record highs and climbing every month, a program once scorned as a failed welfare scheme now helps feed one in eight Americans and one in four children.

“It has grown so rapidly in places so diverse that it is becoming nearly as ordinary as the groceries it buys. More than 36 million people use inconspicuous plastic cards for staples like milk, bread and cheese, swiping them at counters in blighted cities and in suburbs pocked with foreclosure signs.

“Virtually all have incomes near or below the federal poverty line, but their eclectic ranks testify to the range of people struggling with basic needs. They include single mothers and married couples, the newly jobless and the chronically poor, longtime recipients of welfare checks and workers whose reduced hours or slender wages leave pantries bare.”

Biofuels

Philip Brasher reported in yesterday’s Des Moines Register that, “The Environmental Protection Agency is expected to rule this week whether more ethanol can go into the gasoline used for everything from automobiles to boats and snowblowers.

“But that doesn’t mean higher-proof gasoline is headed for service stations any time soon. Even if the agency agrees to allow higher levels of ethanol in gas – and that is no given – it’s not clear when the higher-proof fuel would reach the market.

“Refiners are saying they won’t put more ethanol into their gasoline unless Congress gives them protection from potential lawsuits from motorists or consumers who claim the ethanol hurt their engines.”

Mr. Brasher added that, “The environmental agency is supposed to rule by Tuesday on a petition from Growth Energy, an ethanol industry trade group, to raise the limit on ethanol in gasoline from 10 to 15 percent. Although the agency has let deadlines slip in the past, the agency is committed to making an announcement that day, spokeswoman Deb Berlin said.

“‘We think we made the case,’ said Tom Buis, president of Growth Energy.”

Food Security

The AP reported today that, “‘The Fabric of Our Lives’ may soon feed millions.

“A Texas researcher has found a way to reduce toxin in cottonseed that until now could only be eaten by cattle. The bovines’ multiple stomachs gradually digested the poisonous substance called gossypol.

“The new seeds can be eaten by pigs, chickens, fish and humans and could show up in protein bars, shakes, breads, cookies and other foods within about 10 years. The amount of cotton already grown worldwide contains enough protein to feed 500 million people per year, researchers said.”

And Philip Brasher, who is currently working on a project titled, “Can biotechnology save Africa?”- reported yesterday at the Green Fields Blog (The Des Moines Register) that, “What happens here in Kenya could change the way the world views genetically modified food. Whether it really makes a positive difference in the lives of Africans remains to be seen. Why is Kenya key? The first reason is obvious enough. The first transgenic, drought-tolerant maize crop intended for east Africa will be grown in field trials next year.

“But there are other reasons why Kenya has to be watched: Kenya is on track to implement the first policy for regulating agricultural biotechnology in east Africa, and U.S. officials see the country as a gateway to opening the way for biotech crops in other countries in the region. According to the USDA, Kenya actually imported 700,000 tons of white corn from South Africa this year without testing for it for GMOs; that’s notable because most of the corn now grown in South Africa is genetically engineered.

“Kenya also exemplifies both the potential as well as the problems facing African agriculture. The nation is a leading supplier of horticultural products to Europe, yet droughts regularly devastate farmers in large swaths of the country.”

Mr. Brasher explained that, “In any case, Kenya and the surrounding region need to increase their food supplies, either by producing more or importing more, to keep up with predicted population growth. Demand for corn, a staple food in much of Africa as rice is in Asia, is expected to nearly triple by 2050, according to a recent study by researchers at the International Livestock Research Institute.

“At the World Food Prize symposium in October I sat down with Columbia University’s Pedro Sanchez, the 2002 World Food Prize winner for his work using trees to fertilize African crops, and asked him for his thoughts on this transgenic, drought-tolerant corn. Sanchez says the most immediate needs of smallholder farmers are access to fertilizers, good hybrid seeds, extension agents and reliable markets. But drought-tolerant corn is vitally needed, too, he says, because of the crop’s vulnerability to dry spells and the importance of corn as a staple food.”

Keith Good

 Email This Post Posted by Keith Good • November, 30, 2009 • 5:11 am